Mentor, Ohio 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

020
FXUS61 KCLE 240849
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
349 AM EST Sat Jan 24 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Lucas and Wood Counties have been upgraded to a Winter Storm
Warning since confidence has sufficiently increased for greater
than 6 inches of snow in far NW Ohio. The onset of the snow has
trended a few hours slower tonight, especially in NE Ohio and NW
PA where snow will not begin until after 1 AM Sunday.
Temperatures next week are trending colder, with below zero air
temperatures Monday night and Thursday night and daily highs
struggling to rise past the low to mid teens.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) The major winter storm remains on track to impact all of
northern Ohio and NW PA tonight into Monday bringing widespread
snow, sub-zero wind chills, and treacherous travel.

2) Temperatures will fall below zero again in the wake of the
storm Monday night into Tuesday morning, with dangerous wind
chills of -15 to -20 creating significant cold exposure risks.

3) Very cold conditions will continue all of next week with
bouts of at least light snow. The prolonged cold will elevate
risks for cold exposure and damage to infrastructure.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...
Other than the bitter cold arctic air, conditions are quiet
across the region this morning ahead of the major winter storm
set to impact the region. Temperatures range from about 0 to
12 below zero, with the coldest readings in far eastern Ohio
and interior NW PA. Winds will continue to diminish through
sunrise as the arctic high builds overhead, so the Cold Weather
Advisory should be able to expire at 12Z.

Now for the winter storm, infrared satellite and water vapor
loops early this morning show an active southern stream
subtropical jet extending from Mexico through the southern
Plains and Mid Mississippi Valley ahead of a closed mid/upper
low drifting onshore of Baja California. This is the beginning
stages of the storm, with this subtropical jet pumping mid-level
moisture into the southern Plains and Mid Mississippi Valley. As
the closed low progresses across Mexico and into Texas today
through tonight, it will phase with a strong northern stream
mid/upper shortwave dropping through the Rockies and northern
Plains. In response to this phasing, surface cyclogenesis will
take place along the Texas and Louisiana Gulf coasts this
evening, with a coupled mid/upper jet structure aiding in a
deepening surface low lifting into the eastern Tennessee Valley
by Sunday morning and across the Lower Ohio Valley and central
Appalachians Sunday evening. A sharp and rapidly deepening
mid/upper longwave trough axis swinging through much of the
eastern CONUS behind the storm Monday will allow the inland low
to transfer to a strengthening coastal low near the Jersey shore
as the system bombs out off the New England coast by Monday
night.

Precipitation will rapidly expand across the southern Plains and
Mid Mississippi Valley today as the phasing mid/upper jet
dynamics lead to a strengthening low-level jet and resultant
moisture advection and isentropic ascent from an open Gulf.
With such a strong 1040-1050 mb arctic high anchored across the
Great Lakes ahead of this system, this will set up a classic
overrunning situation. The broadening area of warm/moist
advection and isentropic ascent overtop of the low-level arctic
air supports a massive shield of wintry precip that will
approach our region from the southwest. Timing has slowed in all
guidance regarding the onset of snow tonight across northern
Ohio and NW PA. This is both due to model guidance obtaining a
better handle on the aforementioned phasing, which typically
slows down systems, as well as abundant amounts of low-level dry
air from the arctic high making initial precip fall as virga.
Snow will probably not begin in NW Ohio until after 03Z, but the
delay will be more noticeable in NE Ohio and NW PA where the
onset of snow will probably be more like 06 to 07Z.
Nevertheless, kept all headlines starting at 00Z since the
overall message remains the same that snow will develop tonight
with deteriorating visibility and road conditions. Once the snow
begins, it will continue steadily through Sunday night before
tapering off from west to east Monday morning into the
afternoon. Lake enhancement and upslope flow in NE Ohio and NW
PA will linger the snow the longest into Monday afternoon.

In terms of snow amounts, the heaviest snow is still expected
to fall Sunday and Sunday night as the low tracks across the
Lower Ohio Valley and central Appalachians, with the greatest
synoptic support and moisture advection in a broad deformation
zone on the NW flank of the low across our region during that
time. The aforementioned coupled jet structure will set up
strong mid-level frontogenetic forcing, and it is within that
band that the heaviest snowfall rates are expected. The entire
swath of snow across the region will easily put down 4 to 8
inches of snow areawide given the cold temps and dry snow
(greater than 20:1 ratios), but locations beneath the best
frontogenesis band will see the highest amounts of 10-12 inches
(locally higher possible). Weak mid-level instability within
that band could also result in convective snow bursts with rates
over 1 inch per hour. New guidance overnight has not changed
much in terms of thinking, with the greatest probabilities for
the heaviest snow still expected along a Mt. Vernon to
Youngstown and Meadville line. This is reflected in
probabilistic data for snowfall amounts of greater than 8 inches
in 24 hours. Those probabilities are around 25% in far NW Ohio
near Toledo to 85 to 90% along the Mt. Vernon to Youngstown
line. Despite much lower probabilities for far NW Ohio, upgraded
that area to a Warning since the dry snow ratios will probably
allow amounts to overachieve a bit, with at least 6 to 7 inches
expected. Overall, the entire area should see at least 4-8
inches between late Saturday night and Monday afternoon, with
6-10 inches most likely along and east of I-71. Areas with the
greatest risk of seeing over 12 inches will be that Mt. Vernon
to Youngstown and Meadville line. The one caveat is lake
enhancement Monday morning into the afternoon as the system
pulls away. Lake Erie is mostly ice covered, but there will be a
window of NW flow Monday morning and early afternoon beneath a
TROWAL. This deep wraparound moisture in the TROWAL and strong
cold air advection across the lake combined with upslope flow
could still result in a few extra inches in interior NE Ohio and
NW PA in the snowbelts; it just probably will not last long
given the ice cover and moisture stripping away quickly as the
coastal low takes over.

Impacts with this system will be high areawide. Winds will not
be very strong with it, but NE winds do increase to 15-25 knots
Sunday followed by NW winds of 15-25 knots late Sunday night and
Monday. This is enough given the dry snow to easily make it blow
around, reducing visibility below a quarter mile at times and
adding to the already snow covered roads. Wind chill values will
also be a few degrees below zero tonight/Sunday morning and
again Sunday night/Monday morning, and wind chills will only be
in the single digits during the day Sunday. This will elevate
cold exposure risks for motorists who become stranded in the
snow. Travel is discouraged, but if you must travel, pack a
winter weather kit containing a warm blanket, water, food, and
portable chargers.


KEY MESSAGE 2...
The deepening mid/upper longwave trough over the eastern CONUS
in the wake of the storm will reinforce the pool of bitter cold
arctic air. This combined with deep, fresh snow cover will allow
air temperatures to fall well below zero Monday night into
Tuesday morning, and increasing SW winds of 15-25 knots ahead of
a Clipper system for Tuesday will lead to dangerous wind chills.
Guidance has trended colder Monday night into Tuesday, and many
areas will likely see air temperatures between -5 and -10 and
wind chills of -15 to -20 late Monday night and Tuesday morning.
Cold Weather headlines will be needed again as these
temperatures and wind chills will create significant exposure
risk. The coldest temperatures that we see in our region tend to
occur when the wind is out of the SW like this because it
prevents "warmer" Lake Erie air from coming onshore, so this
will be monitored.

KEY MESSAGE 3...
The arctic air will continue to hold across the region through
at least the end of next week. The last time that our region
experienced a stretch of this many consecutive days with
temperatures averaging this cold (averaging 16 degrees or
colder) was in early January 2018. Daily highs will struggle to
climb out of the low to mid teens, and lows will fall to sub-zero
each night. Lows Thursday night could be well below zero again.
The consecutive days with these temperatures will elevate the
risk of cold exposure and damage to infrastructure. In terms of
snow, weak clipper systems will bring bouts of light snow to
most of the region, with localized lake-effect snow continuing
at times across NE Ohio and NW PA, although this will be limited
by ice cover. These systems could amount to some 1 to 3 inch
snowfalls, but confidence is low at this time. The most
organized clippers look to be Tuesday night and again Wednesday
night into Thursday. Timing and details will change as we get
closer.


&&

.AVIATION /06Z Saturday THROUGH Wednesday/...
Some residual lake effect clouds may persist across portions of
northeast and north-central Ohio over the next few hours, but
generally anticipate VFR across the region through the majority
of the TAF period. High clouds will begin to overspread the CWA
from the south/southwest throughout the day Saturday with
conditions deteriorating as widespread snow begins to lift into
the area after 00Z Sunday. Snow may struggle to reach the
surface at first due to dry air over the region, but currently
thinking that snow will start at KFDY/KMFD prior to 06Z (likely
near or shortly after 03Z) with snow beginning at other
terminals after 06Z. Once snow begins to reach the surface,
visibilities and ceilings will drop to MVFR with IFR developing
within a couple of hours of precip onset.

Light northwest winds are anticipated tonight before shifting to
the east/northeast and increasing to 5 to 10 knots by Saturday
evening.

Outlook...Widespread snow will continue to overspread the area
from the south Saturday night before tapering off Monday. Snow
will be moderate in intensity through the event but high
snowfall totals are expected. Non-VFR with lake effect snow
showers are possible in Northeast Ohio and Northwest
Pennsylvania into Tuesday and again on Wednesday.

&&

.MARINE...
Light and variable winds are expected today as high pressure builds
overhead. East-northeast flow develops tonight, becoming 15-20 knots
on Sunday. Winds become northwest on Monday and then southwest on
Tuesday. Southwest winds should generally be around 20-30 knots,
though there is a very low chance for gales (5-10%), especially
in the far eastern basin. There is also a low chance for low
water in the western basin as well.

Lake Erie is mostly ice-covered at this point and the ice will
continue to expand and thicken through next week as several bouts of
cold air impact the region. Stronger southwest winds on Tuesday may
break up and shift the ice northeastward away from the southwestern
shoreline of Lake Erie.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Cold Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST this morning for OHZ003-
     006>014-017>023-027>033-036>038-047-089.
     Winter Storm Warning from 7 PM this evening to 7 AM EST Monday
     for OHZ003-006>008-017.
     Winter Storm Warning from 7 PM this evening to 10 AM EST
     Monday for OHZ009>014-018>023-027>033-036>038-047-089.
PA...Cold Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST this morning for
     PAZ001>003.
     Winter Storm Warning from 7 PM this evening to 1 PM EST Monday
     for PAZ001>003.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Garuckas
AVIATION...15
MARINE...Saunders